Australia’s energy system will see a historic transfer of power from energy utilities to customers, according to the Interim Report of the Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap project.
In an Australian first, the CSIRO and the Energy Networks Association (ENA) are partnering to develop a 10-year transition plan for the electricity sector that is focused on customers and developed with stakeholders.
“The big shift in our energy future is the transfer of decision-making and control from a handful of energy utilities to millions of Australian customers,” said John Bradley, ENA’s CEO.
“CSIRO’s latest analysis shows more than $224 billion — or more than a quarter — of all electricity system expenditure to 2050 is likely to be made by consumers. The grid can enable that transformation while maintaining a highly reliable, quality service to meet the needs of customers.”
He said the roadmap will assist Australia’s electricity system to support customer choice and control, reduce costs as well as deliver the clean energy transition.
Key findings in the Interim Report include:
- In the next 10 years, storage costs could fall by two-thirds and the cost of solar panels will fall by a third.
- The outlook for long-term electricity customer bills has improved since 2013 modelling and sees alower share of income spent on electricity than previously expected, partly due to the benefits of battery storage to the system.
- There will be stronger incentives to take up solar panels but also the potential for increased cross subsidies among customers if cost-reflective pricing is not addressed.
- The electricity sector could play a significant role in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with up to 51% abatement in the sector by 2030.
- The electricity grid has a key enabling role in all scenarios although it may be used very differently — as a ‘platform’ for new energy services.
“The CSIRO’s 2013 Future Grid Forum provided a detailed view on Australia’s future electricity system,” said CSIRO Energy Chief Economist Paul Graham.
“This 2015 update of four scenarios will act as the baseline for final roadmap recommendations, due late 2016.”
He said falling storage costs can improve the competitiveness of grid-delivered electricity, contributing to lower bills for grid-connected customers by enabling peak demand reduction and more efficient operation of networks.
Bradley added that the CSIRO analysis indicates a modernised electricity grid remains important to even the most decentralised scenarios.
“The technologies and role of the network is set to change significantly with an increasingly ‘two-way’ network, with some scenarios seeing up to 45% of electricity from on-site generation — such as solar panels on homes,” Bradley said.
It is anticipated that the business model of the network could evolve fundamentally to a ‘platform provider’, enabling new energy services and uses, as opposed to the conventional ‘poles and wires’ service.
“Australia has a clear window of opportunity to reshape our electricity system to enable the customer-driven take-up of new services, like renewable and low-emission generation, home automation, battery storage and electric vehicles,” Bradley said.